Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

Analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in airborne particles by direct sample introduction thermal desorption GC/MS

The technique of thermal desorption (TD)–GC/MS was evaluated for measuring airborne, 4–6 ring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) collected onto quartz filters. TD provides a more readily automated and sensitive alternative to traditional solvent extraction, decreasing the time/cost of analysis and reducing the risk of analyte loss or sample contamination. The developed method was successfully applied to the analysis of PAH standard solutions loaded on sorbent tubes packed with quartz wool and the graphitized carbon black sorbent Carbograph2. The optimized method showed high desorption efficiency over the whole range of target PAHs with good precision, linearity and sensitivity. The proposed method was verified on an urban dust Standard Reference Material (SRM 1649a); the experimentally determined concentrations agreed with the certified ranges (95% confidence limit) for all target compounds except benzo[a]anthracene, which fell just outside the narrow certified range. The desorption efficiency and the reproducibility of the method was evaluated by analysing pieces of real sample filters sampled from urban air for a period of 24 h. The results confirmed the homogeneity of the filter and showed high recovery efficiencies for all target PAHs.     

Biodegradation of crosslinked acrylic polymers by a white-rot fungus

Two synthetic superabsorbent crosslinked acrylic polymers were mineralized by the white-rot fungusPhanerochaete chrysosporium. The amount of polymer converted to CO₂ increased as the amount of polymer added to the cultures increased. In the presence of sufficiently large amounts of the superabsorbents, such that all of the culture fluid was absorbed and a gelatinous matrix was formed, the fungus still grew and mineralization was observed. Neither the polymers, nor their degradation products were toxic to the fungus. While the rates of mineralization were low, all of the polymers incubated in the liquid fungal cultures were completely depolymerized to water soluble products within 15–18 days. The depolymerization of the polymers was observed only in nitrogen limited cultures of the fungus which secrete the lignin degradation system, however, the water soluble products of depolymerization were mineralized in both nutrient limited and sufficient cultures of the fungus. The rate of mineralization of the depolymerized metabolites was more than two times greater in nutrient sufficient cultures. Following longer incubation periods, most (> 80 %) of the radioactivity was recovered in the fungal mycelial mat suggesting that carbon of the polymer had been converted to fungal metabolites.